Carmel-by-the-Sea has a cool, foggy marine climate: summer highs average only 66-69°F under frequent morning fog, while September and October are the warmest, sunniest months at about 71°F. Winters are mild, with highs near 60°F and most of the 20 inches of yearly rain falling from November through March.
In July 2025, Carmel woke up to fog on about 9 mornings out of 10, according to NOAA's high-resolution model analysis. About 12 miles up the valley, Carmel Valley averages July highs near 79°F. For the next few days, check the Carmel-by-the-Sea forecast.
What Is the Weather Like in Carmel-by-the-Sea?
Carmel-by-the-Sea stays cool all year, with average highs between 59°F and 71°F in every month. The town has no long-record weather station, so the table below uses NOAA's downtown Monterey station, about 3 miles north, which NOAA's gridded normals for Carmel closely match.
The pattern runs against most beach towns: fog in summer, warmth in fall and sun inland.
| Month | Avg high | Avg low | Rain | What to expect |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 60°F | 45°F | 4.35 in | Rainy season; clear, crisp days between storms |
| February | 61°F | 45°F | 3.99 in | Storms taper; green hills |
| March | 63°F | 46°F | 3.32 in | Showers and sun; wildflowers |
| April | 63°F | 47°F | 1.48 in | Mostly dry; fog starts returning |
| May | 64°F | 49°F | 0.60 in | Gray mornings become common |
| June | 66°F | 51°F | 0.15 in | Foggy mornings, cool afternoons |
| July | 67°F | 53°F | 0.05 in | Peak fog; sun often breaks through late |
| August | 69°F | 54°F | 0.06 in | Fog with warmer breaks |
| September | 71°F | 53°F | 0.09 in | Warmest month; more sunny afternoons |
| October | 71°F | 52°F | 0.91 in | Warm and clearer; first rains late |
| November | 64°F | 48°F | 1.80 in | Cooler; storm season begins |
| December | 59°F | 44°F | 3.62 in | Coolest month; storm watching |
NOAA 1991-2020 normals for the Monterey cooperative station (045795), about 3 miles north of Carmel-by-the-Sea, via RCC-ACIS. Annual rain averages 20.42 inches.
Why Is Carmel So Foggy in Summer?
Carmel is foggy in summer because cold ocean water and inland heat pull the marine layer ashore. Northwest winds bring cold water up from the depths off the Monterey Peninsula, and heat in the Salinas Valley draws the cool, moist air onto the coast. Learn more about the marine layer and how ocean currents create fog.
In NOAA's High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model analysis, Carmel had at least one foggy morning hour on 77% of June days and 87% of July days in 2025, compared with 6% to 18% of days in January and February. That is one recent year, not a long-term average, but it matches what visitors find: gray mornings, cool afternoons and sun that often breaks through late.
The fog's retreat is what makes fall Carmel's real summer.
Why Are September and October Carmel's Warmest Months?
September and October are Carmel's warmest months because the marine layer weakens as inland heat fades. Monterey averages a high of 70.9°F in September and 70.8°F in October, with about 7 days each month at 75°F or warmer, more than any other month.
Fog does not vanish overnight: it still showed up on 73% of September mornings in 2025, then dropped to 32% in October. Fall heat waves can push the coast past 100°F; Monterey's record is 104°F, set on September 2, 2017, and matched October 5, 1987.
Where Can You Find Sun When Carmel Is Foggy?
You can find sun by driving up Carmel Valley Road. About 12 miles inland, Carmel Valley averages a July high of 78.5°F, compared with 67.2°F at Monterey, and about 24 July days reach 75°F or warmer, versus about 3 on the coast. The valley trades warm afternoons for colder nights, with January lows near 40°F.
What Are Winters Like in Carmel?
Winters in Carmel are mild and wet. December is the coolest month, with an average high of 58.7°F, and nearly all of the coast's 20 inches of yearly rain falls from November through March. Frost is rare; Monterey's record low is 20°F, set on December 22, 1990.
Winter is storm-watching season. Big swells pound the rocks along Scenic Road, and the days between storms are often clear and crisp, with some of the year's best visibility down the coast toward Big Sur.
What Is the Water Like at Carmel Beach?
The water at Carmel Beach is cold all year: about 55°F in winter and 59°F to 60°F in late summer at NOAA's Monterey harbor station. Carmel Beach is steep, and winter surf breaks close to shore, so stay well back from the water on big-swell days. Read about sneaker waves before a winter beach walk.
What Is the Best Time to Visit Carmel-by-the-Sea?
The best time to visit Carmel-by-the-Sea for warm, sunny weather is September and October. April and May bring wildflowers and mostly dry days before fog season peaks, and winter brings quiet streets, storm watching and clear days between storms. Summer works too, as long as you plan a few inland afternoons.
Planning a wedding or an outdoor event? See outdoor wedding weather, and compare Carmel with Monterey weather next door.
For the next few days, check the Carmel-by-the-Sea forecast for fog timing and afternoon highs, and compare it with Carmel Valley if you want sun. On storm or surf days, check the National Weather Service Bay Area office for Beach Hazards Statements before heading to Carmel Beach.